Setting the Record Straight on Climate Change and Arson in Australia's Bushfires - —

This map from Geoscience Australia shows the hot spots across Australia on Jan. 14, 2020. For example, a video from the conservative content generator PragerU has been viewed 2 million times since it was posted on Jan. 7. The text in the video claims: “The popular narrative is that Australia’s fires are caused by climate change. But the facts say otherwise… Since November 8, 2019, nearly 200 arsonists have been arrested for starting brush fires in Australia. The arsonists were responsible for about 50% of the bushfires. Not climate change. Arsonists. Repeat that: Not climate change. Arsonists. But the left doesn’t care, because this fact doesn’t agree with their ‘science.'” Here’s what the video gets wrong: First of all, “nearly 200 arsonists” haven’t been arrested since Nov. 8, 2019. As its source, the video cites a Jan. 7 story from Rupert Murdoch’s newspaper the Australian with the headline: “Bushfires: Firebugs fuelling crisis as arson arrest toll hits 183.” The story said that “police arrested 183 people for lighting bushfires across Queensland, NSW, Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania in the past few months.” But that total of 183 arson arrests occurred over various periods in 2019, including all of 2019 in the case of Victoria. The story also referenced statistics since Nov. 8, 2019, from only one state — New South Wales. Police there announced that they had taken “legal action” against 183 people for bushfire-related offenses. Only 24 of those people were charged for “alleged deliberately-lit bushfires,” according to the police; others were cautioned or charged with different offenses. So, the video used the date from the New South Wales announcement and the number of arson arrests counted over five states and various periods in 2019 from the newspaper story. The effect is an inflated number of arrests since the bushfires began. The larger point in the video, though, is that arson is primarily responsible for the bushfires in Australia, not climate change. That message has been distilled into online memes. It also has been trumpeted by some high-profile political figures, including Donald Trump Jr. But overemphasizing the role of arson and pitting it against climate change distorts the issue. The fact is, hot, dry conditions allow for bushfires to escalate, regardless of how they are started. As we explained in 2017, in a story about wildfires in the western U.S., climate change doesn’t cause these fires, but it can exacerbate the hot and dry conditions that make wildfires more likely to develop and grow. Generally, about half of all bushfires are started by natural causes (mostly from lightning), according to Geoscience Australia, a government agency that deals with geology and geography. The other half are caused by people, who start them either accidentally or deliberately. Those that are started deliberately aren’t necessarily malicious, according to the agency. They could be fires that were meant to be contained, but got out of control. The video’s claim that half of the current fires are due to arson is also wrong. That figure appears to be based on another part of the story in the Australian, which said “about 50 per cent of bushfires were lit by firebugs and impending fire seasons excited them.” It attributed that statement to James Ogloff, a professor of forensic behavioral science. We reached out to Ogloff and asked for the source of that figure. He said it came from a 2008 Australian Institute of Criminology report. But that report, more than a decade old, analyzed only fires that were assigned a cause — 13% of those fires were deliberate and 37% were suspicious. It doesn’t account for at least 40% of all fires that weren’t assigned a cause. So we asked Colleen Bryant, the researcher who wrote that 2008 report, if her findings could support the claim that 50% of the current fires are attributable to arson. The short answer is, no. But she also provided to us a 14-page explanation of the current circumstances, which can be read here. The original report is neither a study of bushfires nor arson, she explained. Rather, it is an examination of deliberately lit vegetation fires. Vegetation fire is a broad category that covers any fire occurring in vegetation, whereas a bushfire is larger, akin to a wildfire. There are many more vegetation fires than bushfires. And deliberately lit fires aren’t necessarily arson. They, too, are a broad category that can include arson, but also include suspicious, nuisance and other types of fire ignitions, where the cause of the fire is not conclusive. The original report is based largely on data kept over a four- to five-year period in the late 1990s and early 2000s by various state agencies, but not all fires are recorded. Some of the largest bushfires in northern Australia’s wilderness are not attended, so they wouldn’t be part of that data, for example. Based on her analysis of the available fire statistics, Bryant concluded that most of those very large bushfires have a natural origin, and they account for the “overwhelming majority” of all land burned. Ultimately, she wrote in response to us: Colleen Bryant, Jan. 15, 2020: Bryant (2008a) did conclude that as much as 50 percent of vegetation fires in Australia may be deliberately lit. However, that statistic is not, and should not be used as, an assessment of the likely causes (ignition) of Australia’s 2019‐2020 bushfires, as it is not an accurate reporting of what has occurred, and it is unlikely representative of the actual picture. For a rough idea of how much deliberate torching has contributed to the current fires, we reached out to the four states or territories ablaze on Australia’s East Coast and got information on the number of fires and the number of arrests from one. In Queensland, there have been 1,068 reported bushfires between Sept. 10, 2019, and Jan. 8, 2020, according to the Queensland Police Service. Of those, 114 were “deliberately or maliciously lit,” and 109 people have been cautioned, charged or sent to a restorative justice program, according to police. That would account for about 11% of the fires. A spokesman for the Queensland Fire and Emergency Services echoed the Geoscience Australia analysis of bushfire causes. “There’s a real mix,” he said in an interview with, breaking that mix into three categories — natural causes, accidental human causes (cigarettes and sources as small as a spark from rusty breaks), and intentional human causes. Natural causes account for the bulk of the fires, he said. This diagram from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology shows how pyrocumulonimbus clouds develop. Published with permission. And, as we noted at the start, several reports have found that climate change is contributing to the conditions that generate large-scale bushfires. The “State of the Climate” report for 2018 released by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology said: “Climate change can have a significant influence on the frequency, magnitude and impact of some types of compound events,” giving as an example warming and drying trends in Tasmania in 2015-2016, causing “record high fire danger.” The bureau’s “annual climate statement,” released on Jan. 9, reported that 2019 was the hottest and driest year on record for the country. It said: Australian Bureau of Meteorology: The second half of the year was particularly dry across most of the southern half of Australia, and followed several years of below average rainfall over parts of Queensland and New South Wales. Warm and windy conditions during spring to early summer led to repeated periods of severe fire weather, with very large bushfires affecting eastern Australia from September, with many fires continuing to burn after the end of the year. Those hot, dry conditions have allowed for one of the most severe fire seasons on Australia’s East Coast in decades, according to NASA’s Earth Observatory. The fires have been so severe that they have created pyrocumulonimbus, or fire clouds, that can ignite new fires with lightning strikes. In 2018, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology predicted that “conditions associated with pyrocumulonimbus cloud formation” could become more prevalent in southeast Australia, which is where many of the current fires are located. “The reality is that the fires are larger, hotter, and burning longer than ever before,” said Jennifer Marlon, a research scientist at the Yale School of Forestry & Environmental Studies, in an interview. She likened the severity of the current fires in Australia to the recent wildfires in the western U.S. “There are fingerprints of climate change in all of these blazes that really can’t be denied,” Marlon said. Editor’s note: is one of several organizations working with Facebook to debunk misinformation shared on social media. Our previous stories can be found here. Sources Bryant, Colleen. “Causes of bushfire is Australia – A response.” 15 Jan 2020. Bureau of Meteorology, Australian Government. State of the Climate 2018. Accessed 9 Jan 2020. Bureau of Meteorology, Australian Government. Annual climate statement 2019. 9 Jan 2020. Ross, David and Imogen Reid. “Bushfires: Firebugs fuelling crisis as national arson arrest toll hits 183.” The Australian. 8 Jan 2020. Geoscience Australia. Bushfire. Accessed 9 Jan 2020. “Queensland bushfires, investigation update.” Queensland Police Service. 10 Jan 2020. “Police take legal action against more than 180 people so far during 2019/2020 bushfire season.” New South Wales Police Force. 6 Jan 2020. Ogloff, James. Professor, Swinburne University of Technology. Email interview with 10 Jan 2020. Marlon, Jennifer. Research Scientist, Yale School of Forestry & Environmental Studies. Phone interview with 13 Jan 2020.

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Such climate change is caused by the negative impact of man on nature.

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We studied the climate problem in the lessons of ecology. All countries should work on this issue. Now I am studying the primary sources, which I will use in my work afterwards, read more here -

How a Good IEEE Example can Help you Submit the Best Academic Paper

The reference style of the IEEE or the Institute of Electronics and Electrical Engineers requires all students to use citation numbers within special square brackets. They also need to number all citations correctly. Many professors ask to use the IEEE format when writing research and other academic papers in technical fields, especially in computer science and management. It’s based on Chicago guidelines and requirements. Look at a suitable IEEE format example to get more information. IEEE style basics When formatting an academic paper in this style, students need to number all citations and include their numbers in the text in square brackets, not superscripts. It’s necessary to include important bibliographical information in a list of references at the end of your piece of writing (next to corresponding citation numbers). Why do formats matter? The basic purpose of any format is to provide readers with relevant data about the sources you use and cite in your text. In IEEE citations, number all references and put them in the order they appear in your paper to earn high grades. What if you need to refer to references? When referring to them in the text, put numbers in square brackets. Basic IEEE format features This formatting style has a few distinct features, including: 1. The titles of sources.  Conference papers and chapters’ titles should be in special quotation marks; The title of a book or a journal should be in italics. 2. Authors’ names. Names of the authors should  include surnames and initials (this requirement is different from MLA rules); 3. Font Type & Size. Normal text should be: single-spaced in 10-point Times Roman (or Times); with 12-point interline spacing; in the two-column format. 4. Concerning the context and a field of study, IEEE formatted papers may, involve one-two or all of the following options: Acknowledgements Appendices Note to Practitioners Nomenclature The above-mentioned conventions allow readers to distinguish references at once. The right placement of such details as commas, periods, pages, dates, tags, and colons depends on the type of references that you need to cite in your academic paper. Check out an updated IEEE format example to find everything you need. Don’t forget to put periods after book titles and authors, abbreviate all months to their first three letters, and cite page numbers. Acknowledge all the sources of information that you use in the text, including borrowed ideas and quotes, to avoid plagiarism. Provide citations and their references in the order they appear in it. IEEE Headings To divide one long paper into clearly labelled smaller sections, IEEE formatting style proposes different types of headings and headings of different levels. Headings aim to increase readability and paper encouragement. Among the most typical sections, you may meet and place in your paper are Introduction and Conclusion headings and the other sections within the main content of the paper related to the aspects of the paper topic and content presented different heading types with examples: Primary headings These headings should be: enumerated with Roman numerals  followed by a period set in small caps centered above the text. For example,  I. Primary Heading Secondary headings   These headings should be:  enumerated with capital letters  followed by a period  set in italics  set in title case left-aligned unindented separated from the paragraph by a line break For example,  A. Secondary Heading Tertiary headings  These headings should be: enumerated by Arabic numerals followed by a close-parenthesis  set in italics set in title case left-aligned indented one em separated from the paragraph by a colon (mention: no line break between the heading and paragraph) For example,  1) Tertiary Heading: Paragraph material starts here... Quaternary headings These headings should be: enumerated by lowercase letters followed by a close-parenthesis set in italics  set in sentence case left-aligned indented two ems separated from the text by a colon For example,  a) Quaternary heading: Paragraph material starts here... How to cite sources in the text IEEE in-text citations should consist of numbers in square brackets and correspond to specific citations in your reference list that you put at the end of your assignment. Give them in the ascending order. If you refer to the sources that you cited in the text, use the previously assigned ones to avoid making a mistake. Enclose all in-text citation numbers by square brackets and put them on the text line (with space before brackets and inside sentence punctuation). We have provided some examples of IEEE in-text citations listed below: 1.Rule: text, Author [source number] Example: as shown by Smith [4] 2.Rule: text [source number], [source number] Example: as mentioned earlier [4],[1] 3.Rule: text, Author 1 and Author2 [source number] Example: as shown by Smith and Rogue [4] 4.Rule: text, [1st source number]-[last source number] Example: as mentioned earlier [4]-[8] What if your citations are nouns or footnotes? You need to treat them grammatically in this case. If your sources of information have three or more authors, use et al (which means others) after the first one. IEEE formatting rules don’t allow you to provide publication dates or mention the authors of used sources within your text, except where their names are integral to the right understanding of a full sentence. Ensure that in-text citation and reference list numbers match. That’s because editing them may require renumbering your entire list. Formatting your reference list Put a numbered list of references at the end of your research paper and make sure that it contains all the necessary detailed of sources. Its entries should be in the order you cite sources in the text (from the lowest to the highest) to submit a good work. Don’t use an alphabetical order by titles or authors. Here are some basic rules and examples of how we should cite different types of proceedings in print, pdf, or online in IEEE format.  1.Book  Rule. J. K. Author, “Title of chapter in the book,” in Title of His Published Book, xth ed. City of Publisher, (only U.S. State), Country: Abbrev. of Publisher, year, ch. x, sec. x, pp. xxx–xxx. Examples: Example. L. Stein, “Library of random patterns,” in Computers and You, J. S. Brake, Ed. New York, NY, USA: Wiley, 1994, pp. 55–70.  2. Papers Presented at a Conference Rule. J. K. Author, “Title of paper,” presented at the Abbreviated Name of Conf., City of Conf., Abbrev. State, Country, Month and day(s), year when published, Paper number. Example. J. Arrillaga and B. Giessner, “Limitation of biomedical engineering,” presented at the IEEE Summer Power Library, New York, CA, USA, Jul. 12–17,1990, Paper 70 CP 637. 3. Course Rule. Name of University. (Year). Title of course. [Online]. Available: URL Example. Argosy University Online. (2012). Information literacy and engineering company. [Online]. Available: 4. Datasets  Rule. Author, “Title.” (Date, Year). Distributed by Publisher/Distributor. if DOI is used, end with a period Example. S. Ansolabehere, M. Palmer, and A. Lee. “Precinct-level election company. V1.” January 20, 2014. Distributed byHarvard Election Data Archive. 5. Electronic source.  Rule. Video Owner/Creator, Location (if available). Title of Video: In Initial Caps.(Release date). Accessed: Month Day, Year. [Online Video]. Available: Example. Doane Academy, Burlington, NJ, USA. Second Grade Bossy R. (Feb. 28, 2013). Accessed: Jun. 3, 2018. [Online Video]. Available: How to use IEEE quotes? Students use direct quotes to back up their major arguments by showing the exact phrases and words of authors. To format them correctly, enclose all quotes in double quotation marks and give citations in standard square brackets either after them or after authors’ names in addition to page numbers. There are both long and short quotes. When using longer quotes (they consist of three or more lines), use block quotations and set a block of your quoted text as a separate paragraph. Use small font sizes for them and indent them from both margins. After quotations, give in-text citations in square brackets and write down the page numbers of your sources from where you took quotes phrases or words. Paraphrasing in IEEE When paraphrasing in your piece of writing, you express the facts or ideas that you find in other sources in different words, and that’s why you need to give references. Give citation numbers right after them. For paraphrases, students don’t need to state page numbers. You can still use them along with citations in your text or in a reference list if you need to refer to a specific idea or theory in used sources. This is how you enable targeted readers to find specific information. When it comes to longer sections of books, articles, or other sources of information, they don’t require any page number. When to give page numbers? When formatting your IEEE paper, provide them in all in-text citation when quoting directly if you want to impress professors. It’s not necessary to give them when: Where to get professional assistance? If you have any difficulties with IEEE formatting requirements, think about using our professional services to overcome them successfully. Our team of qualified and reputable experts is always ready to help you. Contact them to solve your problems fast.

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